7 – 10 December 2020, Berlin, Germany

Interview with Dr. Philipp Neubauer, Continental Engineering Services GmbH

This interview is about the new interlocking Dr Philipp Neubauer invented, his opportunities at the CTI Symposium and the next steps in his career.

Panel Discussion: Will regulation allow technology to match customer expectations?

Participants:
Ulrich Walter (host)
Prof. Dr Arno Kwade, Director, Institute for Particle Technology, Technische Universität Braunschweig
Uwe Wagner, Chief Technology Officer and Member of the Board, Schaeffler
Christian Levin, Chief Operating Officer, Traton
Dr Bernd Vahlensieck, Senior Manager E-Mobility & Powertrain, ZF
Prof. Dr Christian Beidl, Head of Institute for ICEs and Drives, TU Darmstadt

Stronger investments in electrification

The automotive industry is in the middle of a restructuring process shaped by digitization and automation, but also the reduction of CO₂ and pollutants. As a glance at the latest models on offer makes clear, hybrid and all-electric drives are all set to go mainstream. But that shift comes with a price tag, and now the industry faces the pressing question of how to develop and build these automobiles on terms their consumers will accept.

This prompted the first question in the panel discussion:

“If you were in charge of your company’s R/D budget, what percentage would you invest in further development of combustion engines?”

As the numbers show, the audience – responding as usual live via smart phone – had a clear opinion: Yes to further investment in ICEs, but a big share of budgets will be going elsewhere.

Ulrich Walter then effectively stood the question on its head by asking the audience:

“If you were in charge of your company’s R/D budget, what percentage would you invest in the further development of batteries?”

Taken together, these two questions showed a clear trend: Invest substantially in electrification, but without neglecting ICEs.

Consumers want it all – but without paying more

So much for the investment side – but what’s the consumer view? In a video survey held in advance, CTI asked people in Germany, China and the US what they thought.

“What are your criteria when buying a car?”

The answers were extremely varied and included criteria such as modern infotainment, image, brand, versatility, roomy interiors, low maintenance costs, reliability and the ability to get people from A to B. Only one person named the drive and its performance as an important decision-making criterion.
In Bernd Vahlensieck’s opinion, those answers were an accurate reflection of the ‘balancing act’ the industry is currently involved in. On the one hand, customers had lots of expectations, some of them new; on the other hand, manufacturers needed to reduce carbon emissions and promote electrification. Vahlensieck was slightly disappointed that drives were hardly mentioned. Uwe Wagner said that actually, customers only want to pay for range, performance, etc. – not for less CO₂. So to bridge the gap until affordable electrified drives prevail, the industry should use the full spectrum of conventional and electrified drives.
Another international survey asked a very specific question:

“Can you see yourself buying a hybrid or an EV?”

According to participants, infrastructure is even more of a sticking point than range. One person gave a vivid example: “I live in an older residential area and park on the street at night. So I’d have to hang a lead from my second-floor window – and most of the time I can’t park in front of my house anyway.” This was probably why an interviewed person from China preferred plug-in hybrids, which combine electric driving with the ability to use fuel on longer journeys.

Professor Kwade noted drily that in cities, the best solution was to have no car at all. City charging infrastructures still posed challenges, and there was no perfect solution. Options such as inductive charging or putting charging points in lamp posts were very expensive. Uwe Wagner advocated hybrid drives that use dedicated ICEs instead of just lumping two technologies together, saying this could cut costs.
Professor Beidl confirmed the results of the survey by saying that availability, not range, was the biggest issue for drivers. “If we can learn one thing from these answers … it’s that customers expect the same level of functionality they have already.” According to Christian Levin the same goes for the commercial sector, where the ability to charge wherever needed is what matters most.

How much are customers willing to pay for emissions-free driving?

At the end of the day, another important question remains:
“How much extra cost would you accept for a locally emission-free mid-range vehicle?”

A surprising number of participants were ready to pay up to €3000 more for zero-emissions driving, while a good third opted for ‘not a cent’. Here again, CTI ran a video survey in advance. This showed two main trends: some people were not willing to pay anything extra; others were, providing the EV in question was ‘particularly fascinating’.

But as Christian Levin pointed out, what matters most in the commercial vehicle sector is TCO, not purchase price. Professor Kwade said that should actually apply to cars too, and BEVs could also turn out cheaper in the long run.

Bernd Vahlensieck pointed out that the extra outlay made much less of a difference on big company cars than on small cars, so private individuals tended to be hit harder.

Batteries could still charge a lot faster

Finally, the panel turned to the status quo in battery technology. Professor Kwade said Li-Ion still had 30-50% more potential, while solid-state batteries could increase volumetric energy density by a further 20 to 30%. But that was about as far as it went. The more important question was, how quickly can you charge the cells? Kwade said there was still much to be done here in terms of cell structures and materials.

Which brings us to the final question for the audience in Berlin:

“Where is the trend in battery development going?”

The result was clear: system competence is expected to rest with OEMs; cell competence will mostly rest with suppliers. The big question is – where exactly will that be?
Professor Kwade said Germany or Europe could keep pace with Asia in terms of technology, but had less experience with mass production. Uwe Wagner thought there was little point making batteries in Germany at present, as there was not enough regenerative energy to do so ‘cleanly’. But in terms of development, striving for a leading role was definitely a good idea.

Vahlensieck said ZF was not developing batteries because there were too many players on the field already. But in the context of systems – and batteries were part of an overall system – ZF too was working intensively on battery technology.

Efficient drive technology is not enough

In response to Ulrich Walter’s question of whether hydrogen might be the better choice for long-distance traffic, Christian Levin weighed up two different aspects. On the one hand, vehicles themselves needed less ‘material’ with hydrogen; on the other, the price of producing hydrogen regeneratively remained to be seen. He said hydrogen was a useful addition, but batteries still performed better in many scenarios.
Uwe Wagner then touched briefly on the political debate. The thinking here is that while hydrogen is comparatively inefficient at just over 20%, production still makes sense if you use regenerative electricity that cannot be sold short term. Also, scaling up production could restore the balance economically.
Professor Beidl took the view that we are currently in a ‘green start-up phase’ and need to gain experience. Instead of thinking in terms of either/or, all options – including meaningful coupling between different sectors – should be on the table. He said the yardstick was not just efficiency, but above all availability and vehicle usage profiles too.
In other words, there is no silver bullet. For driving to remain affordable, the industry will have to keep up its balancing act and find the most efficient solutions possible.

Plenary speech: E-Mobility for all – the concept behind

Frank Bekemeier, CTO e-Mobility, Volkswagen: “A no-compromise design for electric drives”

Volkswagen is backing fully optimized BEVs. The brand recently launched its ID.3 – the first model based on the Modular Electric Drive Kit or MEB – and plans to build a whole family of vehicles on this platform. Compared to a regular Golf, the vehicle Frank Bekemeier presented in Berlin had almost the same external dimensions, yet was ‘as big as a Passat’ inside. For better weight distribution and traction, the ID.3 has a rear-wheel drive with a PSM (310 Nm  / 150 kW) and drive-integrated input transmission and a pulse inverter. For AWD drive applications, the MEB also offers a front-wheel drive unit that is just as highly integrated, but uses an ASM (150 Nm / 75 kW). On top of the ID.3, Bekemeier also showed concept cars such as ID.Crozz, ID.Rooms and ID.Vizzion. All three are based on the same modular platform, which can also be used by other group brands.

A core element of the MEB is the modular battery concept. This delivers ranges of 330, 420 and 550 km (WLTP) from up to twelve cell modules, as described in depth by Dr Holger Manz in his separate plenary lecture on Day 2 of the symposium. Bekemeier focused on the overall vehicle: the platform has a flat underbody with no central tunnel, aluminium door sills, tyres with lower rolling resistance, and a plastic tailgate. The build volume of the 5-link rear axle was optimized to make space for the battery. The McPherson front axle features another load level for front impact scenarios, and also houses the AWD unit. Bekemeier said the rear drum brakes had ‘zero residual braking torque’, but were also optimized for particulates and sealed from external influences.

Bekemeier described the electronics architecture as ‘service-oriented’, with three central computers, but decentralized control units. He said ID.3 was ‘always online’. This was essential for updates, networking, servicing, WE services and the digital ecosystem. He added that VW also offers its own 11 kW wall box chargers for ‘less than €1000’. Another new feature was the Augmented Reality-enabled head-up display, which can project information for navigation or other assistance systems onto the street. Finally, Bekemeier noted that the ID.3 was the first car in its segment to offer a CO₂ A/C system as a climate-friendly alternative, with an optional CO₂ heat pump for additional range.

Frank Bekemeier
Chief Technology Officer e-Mobility
Volkswagen AG, Germany

18^th International Congress and Expo | Automotive Drivetrains – Intelligent – Electrified | 9 – 12 December 2019, Berlin

Plenary speech: Electrified powertrain strategy from Geely’s perspective

Ruiping Wang, Vice President, Zhejiang Geely Auto Group: “The biggest growth will be in hybrid drives”

As the first speaker at the 18^th CTI Symposium Berlin, Ruiping Wang presented her company’s strategy and gave insights into market conditions in China. With peak sales of 24 million cars per year (2017), China is the world’s largest market, though sales have fallen slightly of late. The new government Incentive Policy is influencing electrified vehicle sales: the required annual share of NEVs (New Energy Vehicles) is growing, yet BEV subsidies were halved in mid-2019 and deleted for electric ranges below 250 km. But for 42% of Chinese customers, Wang said, the Incentive Policy was a major reason to buy. On the other hand, the new LFCV (Low Fuel Consumption Vehicle) Incentive Policy encouraged the development of economical hybrid vehicles.

Looking ahead, Wang expects strong growth in HEVs and PHEVs teamed with petrol engines, as well as further growth in BEVs. She believes 90% of drives will involve an ICE in 2030, and foresees a 60% market share for hybrid drives in 2040. Accordingly, Geely’s strategy already includes the ‘intelligent’ Geely 3.0 drive. This couples highly efficient ICEs with conventional / electrified dual clutch transmissions offering seven speeds and different torque densities. Wang said Geely aimed for 90% component sharing in engines, and 85% in its DCTs. More drive electrification would lead to fewer gear steps, supplemented by even more efficient ICEs. As an example, Wang cited the combination of a plug-in hybrid DHT and a DHE (Dedicated Hybrid Engine), saying this could achieve 45% efficiency.

Wang said the CLTC (China Light Duty Test Cycle), which takes effect in 2025, reflected the country’s traffic realities fairly well. While CLTC required a lower average speed than NEDC and WLTC (29.0 vs. 33.6 and 46. 5 km/h), test vehicles were driven more dynamically than under NEDC, in a similar way to WLTC. Wang said the real average speed in China was only around 30 km/h, compared to 50 km/h in Europe and the USA. Also, cars spent over 60% of the time driving in cities. Particularly in the small car segment, Geely expects to see range-extended vehicles used for primarily electric driving – not PHEVs as in higher segments.

Wang believes in the need for ‘Diversified Tech Routes’ that include all technologies, certainly including a clear focus on electrified drives in the coming decades.

Ruiping Wang
Vice President of Geely Auto Group
Zhejiang Geely Auto Group, China

18^th International Congress and Expo | Automotive Drivetrains – Intelligent – Electrified | 9 – 12 December 2019, Berlin