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Breakthroughs needed for viable electrification of commercial application

Gary L. Horvat, Vice President – eMobility, Navistar, Inc., USA

Plenary Speaker at CTI SYMPOSIUM USA on 9 September 2021, 09:10 AM EDT

Watch Gary Horvat´s pre-video for CTI USA now. Gary will be discussing “Breakthroughs needed for viable electrification of commercial application” at the symposium 2021.

After the merger Navistar is part of the TRATON. Together they want to meet the challenges of new regulations and rapidly evolving technologies in connectivity, powertrain and autonomous driving for our customers worldwide even better and quicker. The group is going to invest almost two billion dollars in electrification by 2025 – part of it could help Navistar to push BE and FC/H2 programs.

Program details

The role of TIER 1 suppliers in the transformation towards e-mobility

Dr Otmar Scharrer, Senior Vice President, Research & Development Electrified Powertrain Technology, ZF Friedrichshafen AG, Germany

Plenary Speaker at CTI SYMPOSIUM USA on 9 September 2021, 10:10 AM EDT

The automotive industry is facing a tremendous transformation as the number of electric vehicles (EV) is increasing. However, this development comes along with challenges in terms of declining development times, challenging cost structures and very dynamic customer demands regarding driving experience differentiating propositions. How can a TIER 1 supplier overcome the listed hurdles and even boost the transformation? How will the EV-market further develop?

During his presentation Dr Scharrer will discuss the success factors like regulations, e-motor specs, charging infrastructure and demands for future series adaption of EVs. Based on the analysis he will describe the need of technical developments such as standardized, scalable and flexible module kits for e-motor and inverter technologies as well as the ability to upgrade modules during the product lifetime. – The main success factors to master shorter development cycles combined with decreasing prices.

But not only this: in addition he will explain why organizational changes and skilled workforces are needed to ensure high maturity of new products combined with shortened time-to-markets. Learn about organizational changes within ZF’s R&D, reskilling initiatives, the development of new technological modular kits and the impact on the transformation speed of the industry.

Future of hybrid technologies

Michael Solt, Global Head of Transmission, Driveline and Axles, Stellantis N. V.

More than a century old dominance of the ICE propulsion system is in decline but no one can predict how quickly this may happen. Pundits estimate that by the end of this decade or early next decade a quarter to a third of the vehicles sold may be BEV. Which leaves a large room for the ICE vehicles combined with electrified transmissions and drivelines in xHEV configurations. Year over year strict emissions and greenhouse gas regulations put tremendous pressure on the automotive manufacturers for electrification.

Several strategies are being employed to comply with regulatory and environmental standards. Convergence of xHEV technologies have been observed in the FWD and RWD configurations. Range anxiety, long recharge time, charging infrastructure and ever rising cost of the basic materials needed for an electric propulsion system are the biggest concerns related to BEV. Considering these issues xHEV provides a better near term alternative and a smoother transition to a fully electric propulsion system. In addition, continuous improvement of ICE engines with 50%+ efficiency and improvement in the electrification technologies makes these xHEV technologies even more attractive. To that end the automobile industry and it’s supply chain are going through massive changes with many new players supporting the evolution of vehicle electrification. Companies need to be dynamic and adaptive to win in this environment. Mike Solt will highlight and discuss important elements during his plenary speech on 8th September.

Optimization of Hybrids from the Powertrain Level

In view of today’s primary energy mix along with infrastructure and storage limitations, it is important to develop technically and economically feasible short-term solutions based on real driving conditions and current powertrains, in addition to electrified solutions.  A vehicle with an electrified powertrain introduces many additional energy flows to consider in comparison with a conventional ICE vehicle. A high  level  of  vehicle  and powertrain expertise is now required to develop the  technically  and  economically  best  solutions for  incorporating  the  variety  of  energy  storage solutions available (fossil fuels, e-fuels, batteries  and  fuel  cell). To play an active role in this transformation of the automotive industry, Schaeffler has moved away from the classic approach separating the “engine” and “transmission” units and is now focusing on the development   of   the   overall   system. This allows consideration of the not only engine and transmission energy flows but also electrical, thermal, and chemical.  Understanding these flows, and especially where energy is lost,  supports innovation at the level of the powertrain as well as the entire vehicle while also enabling more sustainable analysis.

Dedicated Hybrid Powertrain as one system

Based on the degree of electrification – “micro-hybrid”, “mild/full hybrid”, “plug-in hybrid” or “xEV” – a powertrain matrix will be used to continue to develop tomorrow’s engine, transmission and electric drive subsystems.

What all approaches have in common is that the optimum solution can only be achieved if the entire powertrain is analysed, including all physical interactions  between  the  internal  combustion engine,  the  transmission,  the  electric  motor and the interaction with the vehicle; thus, not only the flow of forces but also acoustic and  thermal  phenomena  are  taken  into  account. (Fig. 1)

In this study, we considered a C segment plug-in hybrid vehicle. The consumption simulations were carried out based on the WLTC.  The battery for determining the electric range is 9.0 kWh (Fig. 2). As a result of this optimisation the WLTC rated fuel consumption is 3.5 % lower compared to a powersplit and 2.0% less than P2. The efficiency maps used in the simulation for DHE and MultiModeHybrid are basis for the further development on component level. The optimised energy management considers a good driveability.

Development of the MultiModeHybrid

The expectation of improving fuel economy means that optimization of the entire transmission is becoming a priority. This also includes the option of simplifying the mechanical part, possibly by removing the reverse gear and integrating the electric motor(s) into the transmission to take over this function completely.

In order to fulfil all future powertrain demands on a competitive cost level, Schaeffler developed the MultiModeHybrid. The transmission bases on a serial hybrid with the ability to lock the driveline to a parallel drive by closing a K0. The input from the engine has a first ratio of 3.5. The inner transmission input shaft is carrying the rotor of E-motor 1. E-motor 2 is connected to the hollow shaft and via an overall ratio of 8.3 in two steps directly coupled to the differential. Between the two motors is a disconnect clutch in a normally open design and actuated from a CSC. With this layout it will be identical for the FHEV and the PHEV version. The only remaining difference is a HV DC/DC converter for the FHEV version integrated to the double inverter.

With this layout the transmission has three operation modes. The first mode is E-drive. E-motor 2 is driving the vehicle via one fixed ratio of 8.4. There is no shift between any gears. The one speed transmission fulfils the required acceleration over the whole E-drive speed to 135 km/h with a maximum output power of 125 kW. The second mode is the serial drive. In this mode the vehicle is driven in the same manner as in mode 1. Additionally, the engine is running and producing the needed electrical power with the directly connected E-motor 1 which is able to run at 110 kW mechanical input power from the engine. The third mode is parallel drive. At a vehicle speed > 50 km/ h and low to mid acceleration request, the clutch K0 can be closed and with this, there will be a direct connection from the engine to the wheels. The overall ratio of this gear is 2.4, so it is a highly efficient overdrive for urban and motorway driving. (Fig. 3)

Future Dedicated Hybrid Engine

On the one hand, the engine sweet spot is optimized to a point of lower speed and torque. The low-end max torque can be reduced and will be compensated by the E-motor. As a further step, the max speed can be limited below 5.000 rpm as a result of the CVT character and high ratio of the MultiModeHybrid. Instead of using rigid connecting elements between the camshaft and engine valve, a defined oil volume encapsulated in the high-pressure chamber   transfers the cam (lobe) contour to the engine valve. A pump driven by the camshaft via a finger follower builds pressure in the high-pressure chamber. The control system, in addition to the electrohydraulic actuator technology, represents a key module of the UniAir system. Schaeffler has devised a development method that also makes it possible to quickly and easily integrate   the   UniAir   system   in   existing ICE designs. (Fig. 4)

The control algorithms developed by Schaeffler are provided to automotive manufacturers as a software module, which is then integrated as a control module in the engine control unit. With the cycle-specific control logic, the UniAir system opens up new possibilities for altering torque output via the air path as the air mass can be adapted almost as quickly as the ignition point. The next logical step will be to support the trend to further charge dilution (gasoline compression ignition, EGR) with Schaeffler technologies.

Especially in the hybrid driveline, the flexible valve timing can also be used to reduce the final compression pressure of the first compression. With this, the required torque for the ICE restart from E-drive can be reduced and the NVH behaviour of the restart will be significantly improved.

As a next step, the high level powertrain control will be integrated to the PEU of the MultiModeHybrid. Vehicle energy management, emissioning and the driver interface are part of this control. Demonstrator vehicles are in build up for verification of the new powertrain software.

Conclusion

Electrified powertrains offer more energy paths and therefore a more complex optimization problem.  By studying each path including losses, a particular powertrain can be optimised.  One can see that the architecture of transmission and engine are both important and must harmonize with each other as well as the other sub-systems in the vehicle.  This study concerns a FWD C-segment car, but the principles can be applied to mild hybrids, P2 hybrids, battery electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles.

Schaeffler: We Pioneer Motion

For more than 70 years, the Schaeffler Group has pioneered motion to advance how the world moves. As a leading automotive and industrial supplier, Schaeffler is dedicated to making motion and mobility more efficient, intelligent, and sustainable. Specializing in the development and production of solutions for the challenges facing the evolving mobility industry, Schaeffler manufactures high-precision components and systems for drive train and chassis applications, as well as products across the full bandwidth of electrification options.

www.schaeffler.com

Multi-Speed Transmission with Uninterrupted Shifting for EV & IVT for HEV using Geneva Wheel Mechanism

For the last several years, EcoNovaTech has been developing multiple innovative technologies to solve problems that are in the forefront of the automotive industry. With its latest developments, EcoNovaTech provides a paradigm shift in transmission technology with uninterrupted shifting and ALL gear-based transmission.

Multi-Speed Transmission with Uninterrupted Shifting (MSTUS) for EV:

OEMs are continually striving to increase the range per charge for EVs. Some OEMs now recommend not depleting the battery below 25% capacity, to extend its life. Battery charges relatively fast for the first 80% but the last 20% takes about as much time. Therefore, charging the battery up to 100% could take overnight. However, there are concerns that the battery can catch fire making it difficult for consumers to use the full capacity. Moreover, battery degrades depending on the frequency and number of times it is charged and discharged. A transmission that can improve the range will reduce this frequency thereby extending battery life. So, OEMs are actively looking for a multi-speed transmission in place of a single speed transmission to increase the range.

OEMs currently use two stage reduction for EVs. They are also actively looking into two speed transmissions with two stage reduction. Ideally, shifting occurs at around 40 – 45 miles per hour at which the wheel spins at about 650-750 RPM and the motor spins at about 6,500 – 7,500 RPM, since two stage reduction results in about one tenth the RPM of the electric motor. Current technology takes about 150 milliseconds of interruption for synchronizing and shifting, which causes a delay in achieving 0 – 60. So, a Multi-Speed Transmission with Uninterrupted Shifting (MSTUS) is desirable since it further increases the range, without affecting the time needed for 0 – 60. For electric motors spinning at 7,000 RPM the first reduction results in about 2,200-2300 RPM. This allows about 25-30 milliseconds for the transmission to shift over a full revolution, during the second reduction.

Smooth shifting occurs when the vehicle speed remains constant during shifting. Since vehicle speed is a product of motor RPM and angular velocity ratio, the change in this ratio should be inversely proportional to the change in motor RPM. Since the rotor of an electric motor has very low inertia when compared to IC engines, the RPM can be rapidly changed without changing the vehicle speed during shifting. As a result, occupants will not experience a jolt during shifting.

A recent experimental study using chain and sprocket mechanism for uninterrupted shifting shows that when shifting in about 19 milliseconds, most occupants may not experience the abrupt change in vehicle speed. However, use of chain and sprocket mechanism in transmissions is still in developmental stage. Noise and durability issues must be overcome. Chain and sprocket mechanism is not commonly used in transmissions in the industry.

Founded in 2014, EcoNovaTech has been dedicated to its mission of designing custom eco-friendly products through simple, effective engineering solutions and being a leader in Automotive Engineering. With its latest invention, EcoNovaTech now has two patent pending MSTUS solutions for EVs.

Both EcoNovaTech solutions use a transition module for shifting, and circular helical gears for transmission of power. The transition module has non-circular gears or Geneva pin and slot wheels  cycling smoothly through all the angular velocity ratios used in the transmission, ramping up and down as needed. The transition module has functional and non-functional regions. The functional regions are the ramps followed by region of constant ratio. The non-functional regions are where the non-circular gears or Geneva wheels are rotated to complete an integer/reciprocal of an integer rotation of driving and driven shafts so that the whole cycle is repeatable. When the transition modules are in the non-functional region, they are disengaged from their respective shafts using dog clutches. Partial circular gears can be used for non-functional regions to reduce cost. Use of helical gears reduces the space required when compared to chain and sprocket with tensioner. Also, helical gears  provide a smoother and quieter ride at higher efficiency, when compared to chain and sprocket systems. A pair of full Geneva wheels and a pair of Geneva wheels with partial gears are shown in the figure.

EcoNovaTech’s first solution is best suited for luxury passenger vehicles. For such vehicles, it is recommended that duration of uninterrupted shifting is extended when compared to current emerging technology, for a perfectly smooth ride. This solution uses a Duration Extender Module (DEM) that extends the duration of uninterrupted shifting to an optimal value of 30 – 50 ms (multiple revolutions) with zero interruption. DEM uses additional components, however is highly suitable for luxury passenger vehicles.

EcoNovaTech’s second and latest solution does not use a DEM and eliminates the short comings of the chain and sprocket solution that is currently being developed in the industry. In 2019, EcoNovaTech developed a solution for uninterrupted shifting without DEM using non-circular gears (patent pending). EcoNovaTech now has a less expensive innovative design (patent pending) that uses Geneva pin and slot mechanism with a customized slot, in lieu of non-circular gears, to transition from one angular velocity ratio to another. Geneva wheels can be mass produced at a lower cost when compared to non-circular gears. For EV, since the electric motor has a low inertia and can change the RPM instantaneously, shifting can occur within one revolution of the input from the electric motor. Since EV uses two stage reduction, it is advantageous to have the uninterrupted shifting happen in the second stage so that it spans a longer duration.

The operating principle of the MSTUS is explained below:

MSTUS uses 4 engaging and disengaging operations using dog clutches in series to achieve uninterrupted shifting.

To achieve smooth transition from one angular velocity ratio to another:

• While the transition module is in the same ratio as the transmission output gear ratio, the transition module is also linked to the output shaft.
• This is followed by unlinking of the transmission output gear to the output shaft while the transition module enters the ramp region.
• After the transition module ratio is transitioned to the target transmission ratio, the output gear set having the ratio matching the transition module ratio is linked in to the output shaft.
• Before the transition module cycles to next ramp region, it is disconnected from the output shaft thereby culminating the uninterrupted shifting.

All engagement and disengagement operations occur via dog clutches while the RPM of the gears and their respective shafts are synchronized, requiring minimal force to engage/disengage. A graphical representation of the above steps for up-shift from ratio A to B and down-shift from ratio B to A is shown in the figure.

Clutches in the industry take a minimum of 4 milliseconds to engage/disengage needing a total of 16 milliseconds for the 4-step operation. However, the need for 16 ms can be eliminated by sending the command 4 ms ahead of time for each operation.

Non-friction dependent IVT for HEV:
In a hybrid vehicle, since we have a combination of IC engine and electric motor, a smaller IC engine can be used. An IVT can get maximum power out of a small engine for a quick acceleration.

EcoNovaTech has two innovative IVT solutions, one using non-circular gears (patented in US, China and Japan, and patent pending in Canada and India) and its latest using Geneva wheel mechanism (patent pending), along with other COTS components.

The operating principle involves converting

• uniform rotation from the engine to non-uniform rotation using non-circular gears or Geneva mechanism
• non-uniform rotation from above to linear oscillation (a portion being uniform) of a rack using a scotch yoke mechanism
• linear oscillation of the rack to rocking motion of a pinion
• rocking motion of the pinion to a unidirectional uniform rotation of the output using a one-way bearing

The location of the pin in the scotch yoke mechanism dictates the angular velocity ratio.
With as low as 3 scotch yoke modules, a continuous and steady output can be achieved.

The ratio changing mechanism in EcoNovaTech’s solution uses a unique and simple feature enabling the relocation of the crank pin in a rotating coordinate system from a fixed coordinate system. This is used to change the input-to-output ratio for the transmission. The crank pin location can be changed purely mechanically at high RPMs so that it can be operated with a lever or cable. Planetary gears, computer controlled clutch or reversible one-way bearing can be used to achieve reverse gear. Use of reversible one-way bearing eliminates torque recirculation thereby reducing the peak load on the one-way bearing. This results in overall size reduction, since the size of the one-way bearing increases with the torque that is transmitted via the one way bearing.

Use of elliptical gears produce close results as non-circular gears, allowing ease of mass production since the driving and driven non-circular gears can be identical. EcoNovaTech’s latest IVT solution using Geneva wheel mechanism instead of non-circular gears will significantly reduce the manufacturing cost associated with non-circular gears.

EcoNovaTech’s eco-friendly innovative technical solutions can help OEMs progress towards the goal of Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 to help stop climate change.

Authors

Raja Rajendran MSME
President
EcoNovaTech LLC
Email: Raja.Rajendran@EcoNovaTech.com

Prashanth Rajendran MSME (PhD)
CEO
EcoNovaTech LLC
Email: Prashanth.Rajendran@EcoNovaTech.com

www.econovatech.com

How Energy Matters in Mobility Post Pandemic

Alexander Edwards, President, Strategic Vision, USA

Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) interest, consideration and adoption have gone through changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic. And while BEV owners love their products regardless if it is a Leaf or Model S, owners and shoppers found some of the compromises required to make to purchase a new BEV unacceptable. Hear more during Alexander´s plenary speech at CTI Symposium USA (Link zum Programm 2. Tag). His session will explore the impact the pandemic has had on customer mobility, their desires for BEV vehicles and the demands consumers have ranging from price to range in the BEV category. In addition, forecasts about where the BEV market is headed, how to increase real BEV consideration and what threats exist for BEV adoption 10 – 30 years in the future will also be examined.

ADS EVO helps automate electrified vehicle testing

The development of electrified vehicles (EVs) is advancing at a rapid pace due to tightening worldwide emissions regulations and the acceleration of electrification strategies. In the lab, these tests require more driving time to complete as each generation of EVs pushes the boundaries of range. Compared to traditional IC engine vehicles, a different driving automation approach is necessary. One that allows developers to evaluate an EV’s range and help with complex system evaluations for HEVs and PHEVs.

HORIBA is here to help. The new ADS EVO driving robot meets these complex and changing requirements. Its accuracy and reliability over long test periods, high traceability, repeatability, and easy installation make it ideal for the demands of EV testing.

INTRODUCTION

The automotive industry is undergoing a major transformation with new technological trends referred to as Connected, Autonomous, Shared & Services, Electric (CASE). These trends require new development approaches and the optimization of complex systems in the same or shorter time frames. It is also necessary to balance this against the need to comply with stricter environmental regulations and take into consideration the Real Driving Emissions (RDE) test regime. In addition, the investment decisions made today must also factor in future regulatory developments and be future proofed.

ISSUES IN ELECTRIFIED VEHICLE DEVELOPMENT

The development of electrified vehicles is advancing at a rapid pace due to the tightening of worldwide emissions regulations and the acceleration of electrification strategies of various countries and companies. A different approach is needed to evaluate the range of electrified vehicles compared to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. It requires more vehicle driving time and therefore a solution is needed to maintain high driving accuracy over long periods of time.

The Need for Prolonged Testing

The test procedure to determine the electric energy consumption of pure battery electric vehicles is conducted by charging the vehicle’s batteries to full capacity and then driving the vehicle in a mode specified by regulations multiple times in succession to consume the battery’s energy reserves. The distance traveled until the vehicle is unable to continue operating in this mode is then recorded as the result. Each generation of electric vehicles are pushing the boundaries of vehicle range and this has a knock-on effect on the duration required to fully deplete a battery. This type of testing is resource intensive occupying test laboratories, equipment and personnel. In order to offset some of these challenges, the regulatory authorities have specified a test mode that can be used for the evaluation of vehicle range in a shortened timeframe. But a test with 500 km of range using this mode takes approximately 7 hours (Fig.1, HORIBA calculations).

*Estimated duration time for WLTP-STP cycle driving at HORIBA
Figure 1 – Duration time by electric vehicle range (our calculations)

The Need for Complex Systems Evaluation

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) that use both an internal combustion engine and a battery as power sources have large variations in fuel efficiency over specific driving scenarios depending on the strategy employed by the vehicle for a given condition.

The main variable of the strategy which is how much of the battery’s energy is used during a particular part of a drive sequence (or test cycle, in the case of laboratory testing). For example, if a greater proportion of the test was conducted using the battery’s electricity energy then the result will show a lower fuel consumption than if the vehicle had used more energy provided by the internal combustion engine system (Fig.2). Therefore, it is necessary to examine the correlation between a vehicle’s battery energy balance, the vehicle’s energy strategy and the vehicle’s fuel consumption. In order to do this kind of assessment a huge number of test runs are usually required to be performed to determine the correlation. Furthermore, the correlation is poor if there is variability in the way the vehicle is driven, so a highly reproducible drive with as little variability as possible is desirable.

Figure 2 – Correlation between battery energy balance and fuel consumption

IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF VEHICLE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE ADS EVO

The ADS EVO driving robot (Fig.3) supports the automation of vehicle driving for a range of different testing scenarios and produces several benefits which enhances the effectiveness of vehicle product development.
High repeatability and consistency during long tests enable customers to investigate durability issues, monitor the impact of a prolonged operation in a given vehicle mode or complete several tests back to back reducing overall laboratory time.

Its high accuracy combined with its repeatability provides confidence in the test results and reduces the influence of driving inputs. Comparisons can therefore be made more easily between different test regimes, controls strategies and system designs to optimize the final solution. For example hybrid vehicle fuel consumption and energy balance can more easily be correlated. An additional benefit of this is the reduction in the number of tests required which may otherwise be needed to account for variance in driver input.

The ADS EVO can support test laboratory correlation and improve the reproducibility of tests across a customer’s test laboratory network. The self-learning function combined with the ability to save the setup parameters means the ADS EVO robots stationed at other test laboratories can share the same setups and help achieve a high correlation between test facilities across the globe.

In addition, HORIBA has significantly improved the installation of the ADS EVO by reducing the weight of each unit. This improves test laboratory efficiency by allowing quicker vehicle changes and test preparation. It also has a flexible system architecture that allows for additional appendages to tailor the robot to particular vehicles.

Figure 3 – ADS EVO mounted on driver seat

SUMMARY

As vehicle development efforts are rapidly increasing due to the diversification of power sources, stricter environmental regulations, and the increasing complexity of systems, it is important for vehicle manufacturers and related industries to develop vehicles more efficiently. As mentioned, conventional vehicle testing methods are facing various challenges to improve efficiency, such as the increase in duration time and number of tests. The ADS EVO, a driving robot with high traceability, repeatability, and easy installation, solves these problems and contributes to the efficiency of customers’ vehicle development.

Headquartered in Kyoto, Japan, the HORIBA Group is a global leading supplier of measurement technology and systems for various fields from automotive testing, process and environmental monitoring, in-vitro medical diagnostics, semiconductor manufacturing and metrology to scientific R&D and QC measurements.

HORIBA Ltd.
2 Miyanohigashi Kisshoin Minami-ku Kyoto, Japan

HORIBA Europe GmbH Hans-Mess-Straβe 6
61440 Oberursel Germany

HORIBA Instruments Inc. 5900 Hines Drive
Ann Arbor, MI 48108 USA

Crossing the RUBICON to a Sustainable Future: A new perspective on urban transportation

A key criterion of success in business is to anticipate trends, catch waves and ride them. Change is inevitable and we all want to change our business practices and models in line with the changing world, to be ready for or ahead of the change rather than lagging behind. But what will the future of the automotive industry look like, and are the rules of the game about to change?

Market predictions are a standard fare of industry publications and conferences such as CTI. Impressive presentations predict with great precision (often to less than 1% of market share) the share of ICE/HEV/EV some 10, 15, 20 years hence.

One feature of these predictions is also that the volume of global passenger car sales will continue to grow – 60, 80, 120 million cars per annum. It goes without saying that these predictions are based very much on ‘business as usual’, i.e. passenger cars being purchased by private individuals who drive them for business and leisure, but which sit idly for most of each day. After 7-10 years, a moderate number of miles are accumulated, the outdated-looking vehicle is deemed unworthy of maintenance once a major system needs replacing, and the vehicle is scrapped, along with all the other (still functioning) systems. It is replaced by a re-styled version of the previous vehicle, whose cost, appearance and performance are optimised at the point of sale.

This is the business model on which all our plans are based. Requirements are cascaded from this to inform the design of future vehicles, systems and components, with engineers across the world diligently looking for ways to make improvements within this framework.

But what if the future does not look like this? What if the rules of the game are about to change?

In his report, “Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the ICE Vehicle and Oil Industries”, Stanford economist Tony Seba argues that a number of different trends will come together to substantially reduce the proportion of car ownership and hence the number of cars being manufactured.

Seba predicts a scenario with Transport as a Service (Taas) (also referred to as Mobility as a Service – Maas) being available through the approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), which will be electrified as opposed to ICE-driven and result in a 10x increase in the distance per vehicle over its lifetime, most likely to 1m miles. These vehicles will see much higher utilisation than the current fleet that spend most of their time in car parks or on drives. Car ownership and hence vehicle production will plummet.

Seba goes beyond qualitative predictions to make some startling quantitative predictions.

He predicts that the cost per mile of this new mode of transport will be much less than that for car ownership – four to ten times cheaper per mile than buying a new car, and two to four times cheaper than operating an existing vehicle in 2021.

His prediction is that TaaS will provide 95% of the passenger miles travelled within 10 years of the widespread regulatory approval of AVs. By 2030, individually owned ICE vehicles will still represent 40% of the vehicles in the U.S. vehicle fleet, but they will provide just 5% of passenger miles.

American roads will drop from 247 million to 44 million, opening vast tracts of land for other, more productive uses. Demand for new vehicles will plummet: 70% fewer passenger cars and trucks will be manufactured each year.

It goes without saying that this paints a very different picture from other reports. A 70% drop in production indicates 30 million cars per annum in 2030 as opposed to 120 million. As engineers, we often accept tolerances and variances, but this is something different!

Now, there are clearly obstacles to such a scenario becoming reality, not least the full development of truly dependable autonomous vehicles. However, the automotive industry is developing CAVs on the basis that it is a case of ‘when’ and not ‘if’ this is achieved. Are the foundations of our current business models as firm as those of, say, Kodak, who dismissed out of hand the idea of digital photography when it was presented to them in 1975?

It is on this basis that Romax Technology decided to set up a research project to investigate the possibility that the business model of personal transport will change.

It proposes the hypothesis that in the future instead of private cars, taxis and buses, personal transport within a given city is provided as a service by small, autonomous electric vehicles. These vehicles will have high utilisation (~80%) and thus potentially acquire high mileages (~1m miles) within a few years. It will make sense to have the vehicle engineered to a higher level of durability, such that a single passenger car should be able to cover approximately 1m miles, engineered with a similar level of integrity to commercial trucks.

The combination of no driver, high vehicle mileage and high utilisation makes the total cost of ownership and operation attractive, both economically and environmentally. This means that it is a viable business model which will compete with and displace conventional urban modes of transport.

The project RUBICON (ultRa-dUraBle electrIC pOwertraiNs) was set up to investigate whether this scenario is viable. Whereas Tony Seba concentrated on the economics, this project would expand on the engineering challenges and the environmental benefits.

The project, started in November 2020, is funded by Innovate-UK and led by Romax Technology, with Cenex and Empel Systems joining the collaboration. It starts with the assumption that autonomous vehicles (will) work because, as stated, the automotive industry is working on the basis of ‘when’ and not ‘if’, and this subject is studied extensively within its own field.

RUBICON goes on to study the economic and environmental impact of operating a fleet of autonomous taxis in and around a major city. Finally, it considered aspects around making the vehicles substantially more durable than the current designs. Rather than studying the whole vehicle, it focusses on the powertrain and considers what would be needed to raise the durability of the vehicle to a level suitable for its increased life, and what would be the economic and environmental benefits.

The project therefore has a multi-faceted approach – engineering, economics, environmental. It is not possible to answer all the questions in full detail on all three areas, but the project has aimed to cover the major points in all these areas to a reasonable degree of detail. This is akin to the ‘concept design’ of a gearbox – not all the details and tolerances are defined, but the killer questions should have been answered.

The key learnings to date will be presented at CTI US by Barry James, Head of Research and Innovation at Romax Technology, part of Hexagon’s Manufacturing Intelligence division. The nature of the audience means that the key focus will be on the engineering, but headlines concerning the environmental and economic analysis will also be presented.

The key measures are the total lifetime (accounting for both manufacturing and operation) cost and CO2 per passenger mile. Feeding into this analysis are the investigations into the cost/benefit/feasibility of making various powertrain components substantially more durable, plus an illustration of the sort of fleet size, number of journeys and variation in journey distance, taking recorded data from London as inputs.

The hypothesis is that private car ownership will be replaced (in cities at least) by transport-as-a-service being provided by autonomous taxis, supported by details which assess whether this could be valid. Many attending CTI US will be ‘petrol-heads’, emotionally attached to the idea of a private car being a public expression of someone’s personality. However, putting aside personal preferences, if such a model is economically viable, feasible from an engineering point of view and environmentally less damaging, then it is a potential future scenario for the automotive market that needs to be taken seriously.

Hexagon is a global leader in sensor, software, and autonomous solutions. We are putting data to work to boost efficiency, productivity, and quality across industrial, manufacturing, infrastructure, safety, and mobility applications. Our technologies are shaping urban and production ecosystems to become increasingly connected and autonomous – ensuring a scalable, sustainable future.

Romax, part of Hexagon’s Manufacturing Intelligence division, provides world-leading solutions for the design, analysis, testing and manufacture of gearboxes, drivetrains, and bearings. Learn more at romaxtech.com

CTI SYMPOSIUM USA 2021 – Agenda out now

The CTI SYMPOSIUM USA 2021 focusses on the Path to Net-Zero Emission. Exclusive speeches by Ford, GM, Stellantis, MIH Foxconn, Navistar Inc VIA Motors will share latest insights in strategies and technologies on 8 and 9 September. On 8^th September OEM representatives from USA and ASIA will discuss about the current Battle between BEV and Hybrid.
On 9^th September an supplier panel will debate if 100% BEV is a reality for the future.

Audience is invited to address their questions and comments throughout the program to the experts.

You will be able to select your individual program out of 12 technical deep dive sessions.

Hundreds of international experts will gather at one place and you benefit from this exchange of knowledge and opinions right away.

Plus: we have a great, easy & fun meeting tool for you to connect with peers 1:1 or in groups quite similar to our floors. No more boring meetings!

Be part of it either as delegate or exhibitor.
Get your industry updates, meet the experts and generate business at CTI SYMPOSIUM USA 2021.

Benefit from our early bird prices valid until 16th July.

Take your business to a new level

A community is all about networking. That’s why CTI SYMPOSIUM USA DIGITAL especially focuses on targeted and interest-based linking with participants. Take this opportunity to network with your target group for valuable contacts. Insights and advantages of the new digital platform will include:

Personalised Program
Select your preferred lectures and compile your personalised program. Add them to your calendar and receive reminders.

Networking
Virtual 1-on-1 meetings and face-to-face video calls. Matchmaking tools to find your dedicated peers arranging appointments. Speed Dating – interest-based chat or meeting arrangements.

Value Added
Live and interactive, and on-demand for extended availability of content.

Efficiency
Timetable adapted for optimal online participation and networking from office, home or on the go.

Digital Product Placement
Multiple presentation options for your products and company via video, pdf or live presentation. Networking in combination with automatic matching for targeted contacts.

Live and On Demand
Don‘t miss content: Extended availability of documents as well as live and prerecorded lectures during & after the event (according to speaker´s permission).

Entertaining Formats With Valuable Insights

Live Program // Key Note Speeches // Expert Discussions // Analysis // Latest Technology Lectures // Specialist Comments // Active Audience Involvement // Suppliers Product Presentations and many more.