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The Automotive Industry Drives Sustainability

Posted on 31st January 2023

The days of viewing the powertrain as a system on its own are gone. As the 21st CTI Symposium in Berlin showed, the challenges even extend well beyond the vehicle itself. Software and networking play an increasingly central role; circular economy and social responsibility are extending the responsibilities of OEMs and suppliers; and competition for the best drive technology is ongoing. Download the Event Report and read more about CTI Symposium Germany 2022.

 

European Electrification Outlook to 2035

Posted on 18th January 2023

The fragmented situation around the world

A. Saboor Imran and Romain Gillet, S&P Global Mobility (formerly IHS Markit | Automotive)

The regional propulsion mix is a subject of multi-dimensional, complex, and interrelatedness with various sensitivities. It is based on factors such as compliance, regulations, policies, industry perspective, consumer behaviour, and technology developments.

Propulsion strategies are now governed by an increasingly complex set of interactions and influences whose impacts vary across the regions. The aim is to speed up the transition to electric cars and fight climate change. To that end, three regions (EU28, Mainland China, USA) have adopted some stringent regulations for the years to come, leading to more rapid changes within the local powertrain trends. In order to comply, carmakers competing in these markets, have to roll out specific product strategies relying essentially on electrification.

The deviation of BEV across these regions is immensely different based on each local factor. By the end of this decade, the EU BEV rate is projected to reach more than 60%, whereas Greater China would be close to 50%. North America is also catching up with the pace of the EU and Greater China in electrification adoption. So far, the expected production share is around 40%. However, at the global level, we will likely observe a 2-speed electrification development, with those three regions being far ahead of the others due to the lack of stringent regulation elsewhere.

As a consequence, the latest volume projection anticipates more than half of the Global light vehicle production to be Electric cars as soon as the early years of the next decade

Source: S&P Global Powertrain production forecast September 2022
*ICE Based PWT = Internal Combustion Engine + Mild Hybrids + Full Hybrids

Focus on EU – The projected impact of the revised regulation outlook

In Europe, the predominant factor behind this massive shift is the regulatory framework. The European convergence towards electrified powertrains is the result of two types of legislation:

• CO2 reduction, trajectory to mitigate climate change
• Pollutant Emission standards, to tackle the local pollution matters

Following the CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) CO2 framework revision with the introduction of more stringent targets in 2020, each Carmaker will further see their specific targets being revised downwards again for 2025 and 2030 with -15% and -55%, respectively. Consequently, the powertrain strategies favor BEV adoption as it would not be possible for carmakers to comply without a high level of electric cars within their fleets. Furthermore, with the recent decision by the European Union that carmakers should achieve a 100% cut in their CO2 emissions by 2035, there is no other way for the OEMs but to scaling-up on electric vehicles.

Source: S&P Global Mobility Powertrain Production September 2022

Zero-emission technologies to decarbonize mobility

From the projected production outlook, around one in four cars produced in 2025 will be electric before  accelerating strongly in the second half of the decade to reach almost two in three by 2030 to provide enough BEVs to the relevant markets to comply with the CAFE targets. This massive volume growth will also be supported by a substantial ramp-up of dedicated BEV platforms to underpin these new vehicles. Therefore, this complete shift in the regional propulsion mix will materialize by a tipping point in 2029, where BEV will become the leading technology against all the other ICE-based configurations.

In order to reach zero-emission fleets by 2035, Fuel Cells (FCEV) could also be a viable alternative to BEVs, featuring tailpipe zero-emission as well. However, projected volumes are still minimal within the forecast horizon as certain challenges remain to scale the hydrogen powertrain properly. The critical drawback here is certainly the lack of existing infrastructure, and it would prove to be an immense challenge to have widespread H2 availability for passenger cars. Also, to contribute to the industry decarbonization path, mobility would need to get access to a low-carbon Hydrogen ecosystem that did not reach the required scale so far. That being said, it should not prevent some pilot programs from being launched (fueled by hydrogen produced by natural gas reforming), particularly in the light commercial vehicle area, which probably offers the best business case for FCEV at the moment in Europe.

As for eFuels, even if focusing a lot of attention recently, the current EU regulatory framework does not offer a clear route as it is not considered a zero-emission technology within the existing EU mandate. On top of that, other industries (aviation, MHCV, off-highway) will likely rely on these developments as part of their decarbonization roadmaps, eventually creating a certain form of competition leading to limited car availability. E-Fuels could anyway have a potential market in motorsport and accelerate the Vehicles-in-operation decarbonization in some markets.

On the other hand, some remaining conventional powertrain shares would remain almost flat from 2029 onwards, primarily driven by some Eastern European production activities (Russia, Uzbekistan, Turkey) and not being destined for EU markets. Indeed, as clear roadmaps for electrification do not exist yet in these markets and in light of the latest geopolitical developments, CIS operations will become more isolated, following its path, with foreseeable very limited electrified volumes within the next 15 years.

Hybridized powertrains as bridging technologies alongside BEVs

While electric cars will represent most of the volumes in the future, the transition period will definitely require alternative options. In waiting for the EV era to reach its full maturity in becoming the mainstream technology, hybrid powertrains (from mild hybrid to plug-In hybrid) must spread heavily across all segments to bring some form of electrification to almost all vehicles.

The hybrid powertrain portfolio will essentially consist of three different technologies – plug-In hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), full-hybrid vehicles (HEVs), and mild hybrid vehicles (MHEVs) – with various associated levels of cost and efficiency.

Once perceived as offering the best of both worlds, plug-in hybrids (PHEV) are now facing different headwinds that should eventually even question their availability on many nameplates. Indeed, while playing an essential short-term role as transition technology to bridge customers to the electric era, based on the latest developments, it appears that plug-in hybrids (PHEV) will eventually fall down quite shortly from 2025 onwards. The technology is expected to peak in the mid-decade before strongly ramping down. One of the reasons behind this quick demise is to remain competitive and comply with future regulations. Battery capacities must increase to achieve longer zero-emission ranges, driving additional costs.

Moreover, from the regulation point of view, the utility factor currently used for the homologation process must be revised around 2025 to reflect the real driving emission level better. Consequently, the certified CO2 figure will undoubtedly be adjusted upwards, jeopardizing the current PHEV benefit within OEM portfolios. Volumes should then reduce, still focusing almost exclusively on higher segments.

Source: S&P Global Powertrain Production forecast August 2022

In parallel, full-hybrid vehicles (HEV) will still represent an attractive technology for OEMs to reduce their average CO2, especially in mainstream segments. While it was initially mainly developed by very few Asian OEMs, more carmakers now rely on this technology for the remaining markets,  not transitioning to BEVs at the same cadence. There is also a potential for this technology in other markets (such as Asia and the U.S.A), offering some attractive product development synergies to better leverage the associated cost.

Last but not least, mild hybrid technologies provide a certain efficiency level with lower costs to ICEs. Therefore, it does offer opportunities for carmakers, suppliers, and customers before the complete death of ICE. While this technology alone would certainly not bring enough savings to comply with the new CO2 targets, in covering different features thanks to the 48V electric machine, it helps anyway to reduce emissions slightly. It will progressively become almost standard in Europe. Furthermore, to deal with the extended boundary conditions of the RDE (Real Driving Emission) procedure as part of the EU7 pollutant standard, cold starts compliance might require EHC (Electric Heated Catalyst) device for some powertrains. Hence, 48V systems are likely to be installed to fulfill the power demand, simultaneously creating opportunities for mild hybrid architectures.

Different architectures coexist, but volumes will still be driven by P0 systems in the future. Most of the EU7-compliant engine families should feature such systems as standard. However, some OEMs like Stellantis or Volkswagen will adopt different technology routes with, respectively, P2 and P0+P3a rollover for some of their upcoming platforms and vehicles. Another significant development is the eAWD 48V systems. Installing a 48V drive module on the rear axle, it brings an attractive opportunity to offer an all-wheel drive option also on platforms that were initially not designed for mechanical AWD. Typically Renault and Stellantis are the two groups exploring this technology with their CMF and CMP platforms, with P0+P4 and P2+P4 layouts, respectively.

Source: S&P Global Powertrain Production forecast August 2022

A tremendous challenge to the battery ecosystem

Source: S&P Global Powertrain Production forecast August 2022

Batteries are a key technology to successfully achieving the targets for decarbonization. As manufacturers rapidly move towards the growing electrified industry, more resources are put in place to make batteries more affordable, efficient, and available. Collaborations play a vital role between carmakers, battery cell manufacturers, start-ups, the auto industry, and mobility providers to strengthen Europe‘s fully electric future further.

As there will be associated risks due to the raw material availability, the right battery pack sizing approach must be adopted to mitigate the shortage threat. As greater efficiencies are achieved (thanks to improvements to energy density, thermal management, optimized cell chemistries, and advanced battery management systems to extend battery lifetime or also with the vehicle platform design), the average battery capacity trendline will tend to stabilize.

However, in parallel, in order to cover all areas of the market and to maintain a certain level of affordability for some vehicles, the range of combinations offered will be extended to both the higher and lower end. Other improvements, such as high voltage architectures, would improve charging time, peak power, copper usage, and the vehicle‘s overall weight.

At the global level, this will lead to a battery demand exceeding 3TWh in 2030. Carmakers are therefore striking deals with battery suppliers to ensure they can fulfill their targets. Battery cell production must increase, and this scale-up has resulted in a number of new facilities being built or existing ones repurposed as ‘Gigafactories’.

There are aspects of lithium-Ion batteries that must be considered and accounted for in the regulatory framework. As we move away from tailpipe emission monitoring towards a broader scope, it will be imperative that BEVs are adequately scrutinized. Concerns around mining emissions, lifetime energy usage and recyclability will likely be included in the new scope. These steps could help mitigate the geopolitical risks associated with the battery ecosystem.

Conclusions

For light vehicles, BEV will be the mainstream option to switch the EU market to zero-emission by 2035. Decarbonization roadmaps from various sectors require different solutions to fulfill each market constraints.

The transition period in Europe will be relatively short, a decade or thereabouts, this might take much longer in more cost-sensitive markets and where regulation is less severe. Although ICE-based powertrains will be phased-out rapidly in Europe, there is a potential to continue production for a considerable time, serving slower transitioning markets.

Europe aims to lead the transition towards net-zero mobility. Achieving these targets will be challenging for car manufacturers as this will require an optimized global carbon footprint based on a sustainable supply  chain in operating markets. The fight against climate change is only possible with widespread renewable electricity to produce the components required for BEV proliferation and be circular on material utilization and waste.

Policy and associated financial risks have served as key market drivers for a low-carbon economy. They will continue to propel the automotive industry‘s decarbonization progress with additional sustainability frameworks.

Now available: CTI magazine 2022 edition

Posted on 14th December 2022

After a two-year break, we are again providing you with content beyond our annual events. The technical papers in this issue cover developments such as bi-stable electromagnetic clutches from JJE
and ultra-compact differentials for edrives from JTEKT European Operations. Magna International reports on the versatile eBeam drive for electrictrucks and light commercialvehicles, while the Technische Universität Darmstadt has developed a twodrive electric powertrain that promises outstanding efficiency in both electric and dedicated range extender operation. Marelli introduces an eaxle family that is intended to cover 90 % of the market.

We also report on last May’s CTI Symposium USA, where one much-discussed question was: “What are our electrification strategies during the transition phase until 2030?” On the same topic, we interviewed Michael Maten to hear his company’s viewpoint. General Motors, he says, has uncompromising electrification plans: “We don’t want to make what we call half a vehicle.”

Another game changer is the field of tomorrow’s sensor technology and E/E architectures in electrified vehicles, plus the growing importance of in-vehicle smart devices. So to round off this issue, we held a short interview on the subject with our advisory board member Sven Beiker from Stanford University, California.

Our special thanks to everyone who helped make this issue of CTI Mag happen. We hope you enjoy it!

Get your CTI magazine here

CTI SYMPOSIUM USA – Patrick Lindemann becomes new chairman

Posted on 20th September 2022

After 7 years, Dr Hamid Vahabzadeh, Strategy Advisory, AVL List GmbH, is stepping down as chair of CTI SYMPOSIUM USA. Hamid joined CTI USA at the very start in 2007. In 2010 he joined the advisory board, where he made his mark as a strong and proactive supporter of the event. In 2016, the year of the 10^th anniversary, Hamid became chair of CTI SYMPOSIUM USA and the advisory board.

In this role, Hamid continued to successfully develop CTI USA as a leading industry forum for the automotive drivetrain community in NA. Drawing on his extensive expertise, he regularly brought the most interesting professionals, industry leaders and topics together. CTI wishes to thank Hamid for his dedication, and for many years of successful cooperation.

CTI SYMPOSIUM USA will continue to be chaired by an acknowledged expert in automotive drivetrain engineering. We are very glad that advisory board member Patrick Lindemann, President, E-mobility & Chassis Mechatronics, Americas, Schaeffler, will take over the role effective immediately. Patrick has been committed to CTI USA from the very beginning. In 2007, he was part of the “starting line-up” at our first event in the US. He then joined the advisory board in 2013 and as such, is a great advocate for our event.

Patrick brings decades of industry expertise and understands the challenges that lie ahead. Patrick, CTI and the advisory board members are looking forward to further enhancing the event and content covered, in line with the needs of the industry, and positioning CTI SYMPOSIUM USA as the place to be for automotive experts.

“Together, we can create a sustainable future for mobility.” says Patrick Lindemann.
“At CTI SYMPOSIUM USA, we drive progress in passenger cars and commercial automotive transportation. Manufacturers and suppliers are actively demonstrating how to keep pace and staying ahead of customer needs, environmental, institutional and economic demands.”

CTI SYMPOSIUM USA
THE EXPERT SUMMIT FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE MOBILITY

For more than 20 years, CTI SYMPOSIA have earned the respect of the industry for their competent coverage of topical challenges, strategies and technologies. Today, we continue to drive progress in individual and commercial automotive transportation.

Our events are specially designed to help manufacturers and suppliers keep pace with customers, authorities and environmental requirements.

To reflect the latest technological and strategic changes in mobility, CTI has now updated its logo to express our new focus: Carbon Neutral Automotive Drivetrains and Infrastructure. Both go hand-in-hand, and will define the way we travel and transport goods in future.

From 2023, the event focus will be Carbon Neutral Automotive Drivetrains & Infrastructure.

“We don’t want to make what we call half a vehicle”

Posted on 6th September 2022

General Motors has been a pioneer in the area of range extender technology, but today it is focusing on all-electric vehicles. We spoke with Michael Maten, Director EV Policy and Regulatory Affairs at GM, about the company’s electrification path, and future development challenges in fields such as the production, transport, and storage of energy.

Mr. Maten, electrification is transforming the industry rapidly. At GM, which manufacturing and engineering fields are becoming less significant, and which more so?

I think both engineering and manufacturing competencies are becoming even more important. They are both necessary as we continue to electrify things. Electrical engineering and software engineering in particular are becoming more important. Mechanical engineering still plays an important role, but maybe a little less so. On the manufacturing side, it’s a really exciting time – to be right at the beginning of a new industry. Instead of just working around the margins to optimize things like the combustion engine, you truly get this ground floor, you’re building the foundations for the next hundred years of the auto industry. Many engineers who worked on ICE programs are now bringing that expertise to EV programs. And there’s another new aspect: In the past, manufacturing and engineering stopped at the factory doors, once that vehicle left the factory. Now our involvement doesn’t stop at the factory door, because we have over-the-air updates. We are constantly trying to optimize the vehicle, to add features to the vehicle.

What advantages does GM have in this transition, compared to newcomers in the market?

It starts with our size and scale and know-how. The fact that we can quickly bring things to an enormous scale, brings the cost down, to improve the technology, I think that’s a huge advantage. Our modular Ultium platform, which I was involved in planning back in 2017, can be used for a wide range of vehicles. It can adapt to different battery formats and chemistries. It can really be the foundational element for several generations of General Motors vehicles. We are actually building the vehicle around the platform, around the battery, instead of trying to shove a battery into an existing vehicle architecture. I would add that we think we’re the best in the business at generating efficiency throughout the supply chain. Taking what we’ve done in optimizing the supply chain over the last hundred years of ICE development, bringing that level of knowledge, that level of rigor, the level of process to the lithium-ion battery space. It’s still very much what I call a cost-plus industry and not optimized. But we have the experience to handle that.

Your Silverado is a genuine e-truck. How do you ensure sufficient range for a vehicle that’s often used for towing trailers or transporting heavy loads?

Well, we’re designing it not only for 300 miles, but with a 400 miles range in mind to address some of those concerns. We know there are some challenges when you’re towing, and some challenges with temperature variation. We are trying to address all of those with the technology we are putting in the truck. We’re still figuring out, especially for the American consumer, what their kind of crossover point is. I think everyone feels that 300 miles will get most people into an electric vehicle. But there are certain people, in Wyoming or Montana or elsewhere, who say man, I really need 400. But we are committed to the transformation, we think the battery cost curve is coming down. We think the battery technology is getting to a place where we can effectively offer those types of products. I should also say it’s not just about battery chemistry. We are taking an overall vehicle approach. How can we efficiently heat and cool the cabin, things like this. There are many important factors in the overall equation of the range capabilities of the vehicle.

In North America, temperature extremes are much greater than in Central Europe. What are the solutions for reducing negative impacts on range – e.g. through air conditioning and heating?

Certainly, heating is almost a bit of a forgotten area. But we’re focusing on it from a research perspective, whether it’s conductive surfaces like conductive door panels, armrests, or dashboards. I’m not saying this is technology that’s coming out tomorrow in vehicles. But you just have to look at it as a whole system. And how are we doing this? In an internal combustion engine, you’re generating a lot of waste heat that can be used. So now we’re just beginning to explore the capabilities of BEVs and how those all work. Preconditioning is going to play a large part. You know, you’re plugged into an energy source. And when you’re charging, that can be used to precondition the cabin and the battery, you can program when you leave in the morning. I think it’s going to be a key technology, particularly in colder climates. We see in Norway that people in colder climates can adapt to EVs. So you just have to figure out what it is for the American consumer that will cause them to do that. Extreme temperatures are something that a lot of research is going into how to handle that.

What opportunities do you see for hydrogen and e-fuels in the area of passenger cars and light trucks?

I think there are going to be applications in the future that will be the last to adopt electrification. E-fuels could potentially play a role in some of those. Quite frankly, we don’t see hydrogen playing a large role in passenger cars and trucks. But it will play an important role in the overall decarbonized economy, for stationary storage, potentially for medium and heavy-duty vehicles. At GM we have our Hydrotec fuel cell. We have a commercial agreement with Navistar to provide those. But green hydrogen, I always have to preface that, is another area where we need technical and cost improvement. However, in a decarbonized economy, in the passenger car and truck case, we see a potential role for stationary energy storage to support infrastructure. In other words, for somewhere where you can’t quite get all of the energy for 350 kW charging, you may put a hydrogen fuel cell storage unit there, or maybe a large stationary storage battery. This is one of the most important questions: How do we store and transport energy? In America, the middle of the country is rich in renewable energy, wind and solar energy. You can generate a lot there. But unfortunately, the use for most of that energy is on the coast. I think batteries can play a massive role in the stationary storage of energy. Some people don’t quite understand the amount of energy in it. You know, the Hummer EV can power a home for a week.

GM has been a PHEV pioneer, even if the Volt was originally intended as an E-REV. What future do you still see for PHEVs?

We made the decision that we want to accelerate the EV transition, and we felt even hybrids – PHEVs but especially hybrids – are transition technology. If we had $1 billion to spend, we didn’t want to spend it on a technology that might be going out after one generation. Yes, we were a leader in plug-in hybrids or E-REVs, but for a couple of reasons it was a difficult value proposition for customers to understand. Engineers understand the operation, but the customer now had to manage two energy sources and we never quite got the demand that we thought was there. Another aspect is the regulatory angle. We never quite got the regulatory treatment we felt we deserved for PHEVs, especially the E-REV, as 90% of its operation was in electric mode. Again, everything is regulations in the EU and the US, as you know. But primarily it was just a 100% focus on electric vehicles and what we would take to get there.

To what extent will small, affordable vehicles still be available as electrification moves forward?

We plan an offering of a wide range of vehicles. But we do not plan an offering of lower-range vehicles that have less utility, just to hit a certain price point. These vehicles are not going to have as much utility to a customer. We believe these longer-range BEVs are the way to go, and yes, it is a challenging price point to hit. We’ve committed to an Equinox starting at $30,000 next year. And we have the Bolt EV out there, the 2023 range starting from just $26,595. So we think we’re covering most price points. I think we’ve also made allusions to future developments of more affordable vehicles. We are a full-line manufacturer, and we plan to continue that into the BEV space. And that includes being committed to that lower end of the market. What we don’t want to do is make what we call half a vehicle.

Interview: Gernot Goppelt

 

The trick is what the regulator is looking for

Posted on 22nd August 2022

Besides battery electric solutions, Hyundai is also committed to fuel cell vehicles, especially for commercial applications. The company has established truck and bus fleets in South Korea and Switzerland and is currently setting up fleets and services in California. What are the prospects? An interview with Jerome Gregeois, Director Commercial Vehicles Development at Hyundai Kia Technical Center America.

Mr. Gregeois, how is your business with series fuel cell applications developing in global markets?

Korea is our most involved market, with the largest number of vehicle types deployed. We have a light-duty SUV, the Nexo, as well as buses and trucks. In Europe, We are introducing 1,600 trucks by 2025. It was the first project by an OEM for fuel cell class 8 trucks in Europe and started in 2020. For the US, we are currently in a development phase. Next year, in 2023, we will have a deployment at the Port of Oakland in Northern California, with 30 fuel cell trucks as a first step.

How does the cost of developing fuel cell vehicles compare with BEVs?

Fuel cell vehicles are basically electric vehicles. The only difference is the energy storage system. The costs are identical on the motor side, and power electronics are broadly similar. The unique aspect with hydrogen fuel cell is the on-demand, on-board power generation, using stacks. Fuel cell systems require a few more components to handle: the air intake, the hydrogen fuel management, and the thermal management. These are components leveraging mature technologies, which keeps their cost low. The vision we have at Hyundai is cost parity for battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles in the same segment by 2030. By then the Total Cost of Ownership is likely to be lower for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles than battery electric vehicles because electricity prices are likely to go up, and prices for hydrogen are likely to go down from today’s baseline.

In commercial applications, where do you prefer FCEV and where do BEVs make sense?

Fuel cell makes sense for vehicles with a high duty cycle – for example three-shift operation, or very long drives without infrastructure en route. That’s the first kind of application for heavy-duty commercial vehicles – or any commercial vehicle really, anything from 10,000 pounds upwards. Fuel cells also make sense at locations where installing a battery charging infrastructure is difficult – for example in a location that doesn’t have an electrical infrastructure capable of providing the required peak supply, which would require significant and costly upgrades. Another example is a fleet operator who does not own the yard where the trucks are parked, with a landlord not interested in building a charging infrastructure. The bottom line is that if it’s hard to install an infrastructure and you have a high-duty cycle, you will be in a much better position to implement fuel cell trucks.

Would the next stage of chemical processing – e-fuels – also make sense for commercial vehicle applications?

Many things can make sense and work well from a technical point of view. The trick is what the regulator is looking for. And if you’re really looking for absolutely zero-emission vehicles, with nothing at the tailpipe, then your options are battery or fuel cell electric powertrains. With e-fuels there might be no CO₂, but there might be other pollutants to consider. If the regulator says zero-emission everywhere and anywhere, that would rule out e-fuel solutions.

What is your opinion on hydrogen for passenger vehicles?

For passenger vehicles, I think the question again is: what’s the usage? In the US, pickup trucks can be heavy vehicles. They can be class 2 or class 3 and still be used as personal vehicles, with occasional medium duty purpose, like camping. In those segments, I see challenges for battery-electric vehicles because the amount of energy needed on board is difficult to achieve with a battery. Battery-electric makes sense in applications like compact or midsize that are mostly used for short commutes, rather than road trips, and if the vehicles can be charged at home. The hydrogen passenger SUV we have at Hyundai right now is the Nexo, a midsize SUV. It gives you about 350 to 380 miles of range, and we get great feedback from consumers about vehicle performance. Generally, the key question is whether the respective paces of infrastructure providers, regulators, and OEMs can be aligned. If there are gaps, it will be challenging.

Interview: Gernot Goppelt

Industrialization of the value stream is part of the solution

Posted on 21st July 2022

Ford is offering many ‘flavors’ on its path from ICE to BEV, as Dave Filipe, Vice President Vehicle Hardware Modules Ford, explained in his presentation at the 2022 CTI Symposium in Novi. In this interview, Filipe gives insights into Ford’s electrification path until 2030 and outlines the challenges and solutions in a demanding international market.

Mr. Filipe, Ford has recently invested a billion dollars in the Electrification Center Cologne. Why there?

Cologne is one of our most important sites for product development, manufacturing and supply base support, and it’s one of our innovation hubs. We want to leverage that as we transition from ICE to BEV. In the case of Europe, we’ve already announced that by the end of the decade, all our passenger cars will be BEVs. Our team in Cologne is best suited with all their skills, their talent, and the vision they bring to the Ford Motor Company. So our obvious move was to establish Cologne as our first electrification center for the European market. We have further activities in China and USA, as we have some different applications there.

Speaking of the US: Electric trucks like the F-150 are a particular challenge in terms of range, due to high load and towing demands. What are you doing to ensure they maintain their full utility value?

I’ve been driving a Mustang Mach-E for the past one-and-a-half years, and it’s an amazing product. You learn how to get the most out of the product from a range perspective, depending on the weather and other range factors. For us at Ford, it’s important to help customers with any of those concerns – to maximize range for the customer. In the case of trucks, our customers use their vehicles quite a lot for work. We need to establish a relationship with these customers through our ‘always on’ process and mindset. For all the use cases they go face, we need to try to understand, plan, and help them. In the case of the F-150 Lightning, for example, we put ‘scales’ on board. So when the customer puts a heavy box, or dirt or sand or whatever, on the back of their pickup truck, the scales say they’re now carrying five hundred or a thousand kilos. And we use that data to help show the customer how best to drive when moving that load; we help to inform them. Another thing we do is, if the customer plans a route and punches it into our Sync 4 system, we understand the routes, all the charges, the gradients, and hills for example … we calculate the energy usage. We may even offer alternative routes that are longer but less hilly, to improve their use of energy.

Opinions vary as to who should be responsible for charging infrastructures. What is Ford doing – not just in North America, but in Europe as well?

One thing I would say, and that we probably all agree on, is that it shouldn’t be the customers’ problem. We as an industry – the OEMs and the people working on infrastructure – need to provide the solutions to the customer. In the case of Ford, for example, we’ve created a division called ‘Ford Pro’ that is looking at commercial vehicle customers in the US and in Europe. One objective is to help fleet customers on their journey to electrification, obviously with our Ford products like the Transit all-electric. But we also want to be a one-stop solution for our fleet customers. We have several work streams in place. Customers can tell us their charging requirements; how many vehicles, what routes and duty cycles … and then we help by recommending the optimal charging system solution, optimal delivery routes, and so on. So that’s a start. I think what you’re seeing from Ford, especially now with the model E, is that we’ll expand that. We’ll expand that for our fleet and commercial customers, and we’ll expand that for our retail customers as well.

 

Ford has been broadly positioned with hybrid powertrain solutions (parallel, power split, mild, full, plug-in…) How important will HEVs and PHEVs be in the future?

We’ve actually provided customers with these incredible hybrid products. They’re being very well received. I think the journey will lead to full electrification, but that will take some time. As we go on that journey, we are going to be able to offer customers what I call the ‘power of choice’. They can get a BEV F-150, or they can buy an incredibly purposeful hybrid F-150. And if we look across our lineup, that’s what we want to ensure because we are committed to the Paris agreement. We want to ensure that on the ICE side, and also on the BEV side. That’s what Ford model E and Ford Blue is about, it’s about winning in both spaces in the marketplace. As for PHEVs, I think that’s dictated by this BEV acceleration, coupled with customer acceptance. I think BEVs will work in many, many segments. We are still going to have this transition period where customers may not be sure, and we are going to help them on that journey. And our plug-in hybrid in Europe, our Kuga PHEV, has really resonated well with our customers. I think this is an interesting time because we are obviously in this transition period. The customers still want both at this time. We’ve got great products in both spaces. So we’re very excited about that path.

What chance do you still give the internal combustion engine?

Well we’re on our way to BEVs, and it’s supercritical, but we are continuing to optimize those ICE engines. Euro 7 is coming, and that’s going to be a big challenge. We’re supporting that, we’ll deliver that for the remaining ICEs, because that’s important in the latter half of the decade. I think we need to simplify the ICE lineup to deliver that work. But we still have to consider the entire globe, because we have products like the Ranger that are very global. And we have to make sure we continue to help those other markets in their journey to reducing CO₂. They may not share the same pace of electrification as Europe and North America or China. So we have to consider that because again, we are committed to the two-degree goal of the Paris report.

How do you think Ford’s powertrain portfolio will have changed by 2030?

First of all, I’m excited as an engineer, because you always want to be working on new technology. We will always have an innovative solution, I think that’s what the story of 2030 is about. And part of the solutions we need to come up with is what I call the industrialization of the value stream: making sure we get that optimized. Making batteries is a very complicated manufacturing process, but the value stream will support it. So there’s a lot of work we have to do to scale up electrification in the next 2-to-3-to-5 years. And by 2030 I think we are going to have even newer advances in battery chemistry, driveline technology, and software that will make BEVs even better as a total system. But also, hybrid battery cells are going to benefit from the technology progression of BEV battery cells. So the two will go hand-in-hand. That will help the hybrid side of things, and provide more value and more benefits for the customers as well. So these are exciting times.

Interview: Gernot Goppelt

Event Report CTI SYMPOSIUM USA 2022

Posted on 8th July 2022

Electrification is taking off: there are more EVs to choose from; platform concepts are becoming more important, and competition among e-drives is lively. The first e-trucks are arriving on the US market – and the jury is still out on how long ICEs have left to live. And which energy forms are reliably available in the future? At this year‘s CTI Symposium Novi, 18 – 19 May 2022, these were just some of the topics up for discussion.